Preview: UFC 323 Prelims

Middleweights

Marvin Vettori (19-9-1, 9-7-1 UFC) vs. Brunno Ferreira (14-2, 5-2 UFC)

BETTING ODDS: Vettori (-118), Ferreira (-102)

Vettori could very much use a win. “The Italian Dream” had a bit of a rocky start to his UFC career but eventually found a niche as one of the most consistent fighters in the promotion, for better or for worse. Blessed with elite durability, Vettori stuck to a dedicated pressure game without ever getting knocked off the rails. Vettori wasn’t a particularly powerful striker, but he would continue pumping out volume and leave it up to his opponents to deal with it. That simple but effective game plan marched him all the way to a 2021 title shot against Israel Adesanya, and while “The Last Stylebender” and Robert Whittaker proved capable of outmaneuvering Vettori’s limited skillset, the Italian remained relevant as a top-tier middleweight for the next few years. A 2023 loss to Jared Cannonier was the first sign of some slippage from Vettori, as he got stunned by some of the MMA Lab rep’s offense. After taking a subsequent two-year layoff due to injuries, the situation does not seem to have improved upon Vettori’s return. Vettori dropped a rematch from 2023 against Roman Dolidze and a decision to Brendan Allen, both middling performances where he had clearly lost a step. He could summon some of his old will at times, but he still got hurt on occasion and sometimes didn’t look particularly eager to put his foot on the gas. The Allen loss came shortly after the death of Vettori’s brother—an understandable explanation for why he would look flat—but there still isn’t much pointing in the right direction heading into this fight against Ferreira.

Ferreira has been fairly simple to break down during most of his UFC career, as the Brazilian typically lives up to his “Hulk” nickname by hunting for the knockout with few other ideas. Ferreira is a clear standout as a knockout puncher, but his fights mostly came down to whether his opponent could outwrestle him or beat him to the punch—at least until his last two appearances, which have seen him score some unexpected armbar finishes. Despite that run of results, this remains a matchup where Vettori is probably best off breaking out his long-dormant wrestling game to neutralize Ferreira and take an ugly win. However, it’s likelier that he tries to strike with Ferreira, and given recent trends, there will probably be a moment when Vettori will be scared off by his opponent’s power and taper off in terms of aggression. The pick is Ferreira via decision.

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