Preview: UFC 323 Prelims

Lightweights

Jalin Turner (14-9, 7-6 UFC) vs. Edson Barboza (24-13, 18-13 UFC)

BETTING ODDS: Turner (-290), Barboza (+235)

Retirements rarely stick in mixed martial arts, so it’s not a shock to see Turner back in action roughly nine months after he hung up the gloves. Turner was just two and a half years into his professional career when the UFC picked him up, but he was clearly a talent worth watching as a 6-foot-3 lightweight, even as he suffered some lumps coming up the ranks. Once Turner apparently turned a corner in 2020, he looked close to unstoppable as a finishing threat, as he ran through opponent after opponent thanks to knockout power and an effective grappling game. Five straight wins got “The Tarantula” to a point where he was fighting in the UFC’s lightweight rankings—a level where the cracks in his game started to show. Turner is a hot starter and a diverse offensive threat, but he tends to fade badly down the stretch of his fights. Mateusz Gamrot, Dan Hooker and Renato “Money” Moicano were able to find a point to turn their fights with Turner around. He still has yet to win a fight that goes past the second round. The loss to Moicano was particularly rough, as Turner seemingly had a big win in hand before mistakenly attempting to walk off his knockout. Turner’s next and most recent loss to Ignacio Bahamondes saw him show up in flat form and quickly get tapped. That marked four losses in five fights for Turner, and he attempts to start anew against Barboza, who is trying to extend this late phase of his career.

The UFC signed Barboza only a year and a half into his professional career—close to unheard of at the time—in 2010, but “Junior” lived up to the hype as one of the most vicious kickers the sport has ever seen. A 2012 spinning wheel kick knockout of Terry Etim remains a legendary highlight, and at the time, it seemed to be the result that suggested Barboza could be a future title contender. Instead, Barboza’s next fight showed the fatal flaws in his approach, as Jamie Varner managed to step in as a late replacement and beat the Brazilian in a massive upset. For all of Barboza’s immense kicking talent, Varner proved that he was suddenly a much less effective fighter if an opponent could rush him and get him moving backwards. That held true for the next decade-plus, as Barboza has never quite figured out how to fight back against high-level pressure. However, it speaks to Barboza’s talent that he has been highly successful despite the seemingly simple game plan that beats him. Rushing Barboza can seem like a smart idea on paper, but an opponent needs the necessary level of athleticism to close that distance and the mental fortitude to eat some offense from one of the hardest kickers in the game. Even a half-decade sojourn down to featherweight resulted in Barboza essentially having the same ceiling with the same strengths and weaknesses, so an August fight against Drakkar Klose saw him decide to stop draining himself and move back to lightweight. It was also the first fight where Barboza started to look slower, understandably so given his age and long career. Given that reality, the lean is that Turner’s tendency for hot starts, when combined with his massive frame, means that he’s likely to catch Barboza early, though this essentially becomes a coinflip after any length of time. The pick is Turner via first-round submission.

Continue Reading »
Dawson vs. Torres
Duncan vs. McKinney
Barber vs. Silva
Ziam vs. Sadykhov
Vettori vs. Ferreira
Turner vs. Barboza
Baraniewski vs. Aslan
Abdul-Malik vs. Trocoli
Santos vs. Naimov