Preview: UFC Houston Prelims

Men’s Flyweights

Ode Osbourne vs. Alibi Idiris

BETTING ODDS: Idiris (-130); Osbourne (+110)

Osbourne (13-9, 1 NC; 5-7 UFC) remains one of the more frustrating fighters in the UFC. He has the physical tools and component skills to be a Top 15 fighter at either 125 or 135 pounds and has shown flashes of that upside in the cage yet sits below .500 in the Octagon and has dropped four of his last five. At flyweight, he is very big, with a significant reach advantage over almost everyone else, and is a frighteningly fast and fluid athlete. He parlays those physical gifts into a highlight-reel knockout at any moment but is prone to stretches of low output in the cage. He also still shows defensive liabilities almost everywhere: Osbourne is both longer and quicker than all of his opponents, yet gets hit cleanly far too often, and on the ground, he is offensively potent, but also extremely susceptible to his opponents’ grappling.

Idiris (10-1; 0-1 UFC) is easier to forecast than Osbourne despite having fewer than half the professional fights. The Kazakhstani “TUF” alum is a classic example of the kind of wrestle-boxers that emerge from that part of the world this decade, with a come-forward style fueled by hard punches, occasional spinning attacks and the threat of the takedown. In Idiris’ case, the style is fueled by excellent athleticism and good natural power, and it served him extremely well right up until his loss in the “TUF” finale last August. Joseph Morales showed some flaws in Idiris’ grappling once things were on the canvas, and he remained composed on the feet in the face of Idiris’ aggression, winning most of the exchanges there as well.

This fight is a near pick ‘em on the betting books, and for good reason. On the right day, Osbourne is perfectly capable of nuking Idiris in the middle of an ill-timed spinning strike, or snatching a neck or limb in transition as Morales did. However, Osbourne’s cage generalship is so poor that nearly any opponent who knows what he’s good at has a pretty good chance of making it work, and while Idiris is far from a perfect fighter, he definitely understands his game and will pursue it doggedly. The pick is Idiris by decision.

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