Preview: UFC Houston Prelims

Women’s Flyweights

Juliana Miller vs. Carli Judice

BETTING ODDS: Judice (-800); Miller (+525)

In the curtain-jerker, “Killer” Miller (4-3; 2-2 UFC) will attempt to reclaim some of the momentum of her triumphant run on “The Ultimate Fighter” Season 30 and slow the ascent of newer prospect Judice (5-2; 2-1 UFC). Miller is a big flyweight, physically strong, but slow on the feet, where she has been very hittable and has struggled to corral quicker women with better footwork. Miller is at her best when the fight is on the ground, where her strength and grappling chops can be brought to bear, but her takedown game is very poor, especially in open space. As such, she has struggled, and will continue to struggle, against strikers who have good enough lateral movement to stay off of the cage and throw enough strikes to highlight her defensive issues on the feet.

Those qualities all describe Judice to a tee. The Louisiana native is nicknamed “Crispy” for her hands, but her kicks are accurate and surprisingly powerful as well. She came to the UFC after an unsuccessful bid on the Contender Series and still has a lot of the feel of a raw prospect; the individual tools are all there, including some rapidly improving defensive wrestling, but only recently has she started to put it all together, as she showed in back to back stoppages of Yuneisy Duben and Nicolle Caliari last year. Miller is a step up in competition from those two, but the confidence and the effortless mixing of body and head strikes that Judice showed in stopping them should serve her well.

Judice is the biggest betting favorite on the card, which is concerning when you consider that these are both women in their 20s with fewer than 10 professional fights apiece. In many ways, both are only semi-known quantities as fighters, and either or both might have made serious strides since the last time they competed. However, Judice seems to be very much on the rise, while Miller has plateaued at best, and the style matchup is extremely problematic. Miller has shown incredible toughness through her run on “TUF” and her first four UFC bouts, and it’s possible that she makes it to the final horn, but she is going to be walking face-first into a woodchipper, and the pick here is that the damage piles up enough to force a Round 3 TKO stoppage.

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Miller vs. Judice