Preview: UFC Houston Prelims

Featherweights

Jordan Leavitt vs. Yadier Del Valle

BETTING ODDS: Del Valle (-400); Leavitt (+320)

Leavitt (12-3; 5-3 UFC) looks here to reboot his Octagon run by dropping from lightweight to featherweight. It’s a puzzling move for several reasons. One, he was fairly large even at 155 pounds. Two, he wasn’t exactly drowning at lightweight, having won five of his first eight UFC fights and earned three “Performance of the Night” bonuses, including one in his most recent outing. Three, and most importantly, while he had his problems and limitations at lightweight, none of them were about being too small. (Having said that, this was my exact take on Punahele Soriano moving down from 185 to 170 pounds, and I’m now eating those words.)

Leavitt is a fun, creative and dangerous grappler, but he isn’t much of an athlete, his takedowns are average at best and while he has made some strides, he is still one of the worst strikers in the division. That would appear to add up to Leavitt being stuck on the feet, getting chewed up by better kickboxers while he looks desperately for takedowns, but ironically, his three UFC losses have all been to fellow grappling specialists, and in fact Chase Hooper, Claudio Puelles and especially Paddy Pimblett are all more or less deluxe versions of the same basic fighter.

Del Valle (10-0; 2-0 UFC) is a serious prospect; if the next Joshua Van is already in the UFC, it’s probably the 29-year-old Cuban by way of Houston. Despite his ratio of submission to knockout wins, del Valle’s best tool is his boxing. His hands are fast and accurate, he throws good combinations, and he slips and parries punches in the pocket a bit like a sized-down Dustin Poirier. His strikes carry excellent power that stems from mechanics and accuracy rather than big, exaggerated swings. He is a capable wrestler both offensively and defensively, and his four career submissions reflect his ability to capitalize quickly on opponents who are hurt and/or desperate to take him down.

Time will tell whether Leavitt’s move to featherweight is a good one, but we aren’t likely to find out on Saturday, as this is an absolutely dreadful style matchup for “The Monkey King,” who will be severely outmatched on the feet and might not even be the more dangerous grappler. Del Valle should find the slow-footed, upright Leavitt early and often with his hands, and if Leavitt’s chin and durability are compromised at all by the weight cut, this could be over quickly. The pick here is that Leavitt makes it out of the first round, but not by much. Del Valle by Round 2 TKO.

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