Preview: UFC 324 Prelims

Light Heavyweights

Modestas Bukauskas (19-6, 7-4 UFC) vs. Nikita Krylov (30-11, 11-9 UFC)

BETTING ODDS: Bukauskas (-165), Krylov (+130)

Things have not been going well for Krylov. He started his UFC career as more meme than prospect, running up his record against terrible competition before losing a horrific fight to Soa Palelei in 2013. However, he quickly cut down to light heavyweight and shockingly showed some potential, unlocking some athleticism and showing two major skills—grappling ability and toughness—that flummoxed most of his opposition. Krylov seemed to be building some momentum before leaving the UFC for two years to make more money on the Russian scene, but he essentially picked up where he left off upon his return. Too raw in terms of skills to make any sort of real run towards contention, he stayed aggressive and tough enough to give a difficult fight to anyone in the division. A recent three-fight run of wins over Alexander Gustafsson, Volkan Oezdemir and Ryan Spann probably had Krylov actually closer to a title shot than at any previous point in his career. Unfortunately for him, the Spann win gave way to a two-year layoff that seems to have sapped Krylov of most of his effectiveness. Upon his return against Dominick Reyes in April, Krylov looked shockingly tentative in terms of leaning on his pressure and his grappling. The situation got even worse, as Reyes became the first man to crack Krylov’s previously unbreakable chin. A July loss to Bogdan Guskov went much the same way, and now it’s quite unclear how well Krylov’s game can hold together without the durability that was the bedrock of his approach.

That makes this a big opportunity for Bukauskas, who likely would have had trouble with any previous version of Krylov. Initially signed by the UFC in 2020, “The Baltic Gladiator” had an impressive regional record but didn’t appear poised for much high-level success. A solid athlete with decent tools, Bukauskas rarely overwhelmed his opponents and tended to slowly outlast them over time. Indeed, Bukauskas had trouble building much momentum in his first UFC stint, ending his campaign with three straight losses and a major knee injury. He quickly worked his way back to the UFC upon his recovery and has fared much better, winning six of his last seven fights. Bukauskas still isn’t much of a dynamo, but he has picked up the pace a bit and gotten more accurate with his offense. Bukauskas might still take a while to pick his spots, but he has made those opportunities count, even scoring three finishes in his last four wins. If Krylov’s chin was still intact, this would read as a clear win for the Ukrainian based on his usual fallbacks of durability and wrestling. Nowadays, though, it seems like he’s just going to charge into a knockout against anyone with a certain level of power. The pick is Bukauskas via first-round knockout.

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