Preview: UFC 324 Prelims

Lightweights

Alexander Hernandez (18-8, 10-7 UFC) vs. Michael Johnson (24-19, 16-15 UFC)

BETTING ODDS: Hernandez (-155), Johnson (+130)

Hernandez continues in his attempt to prove that he has truly turned a corner in this fascinating matchup. Hernandez was one of the UFC’s top newcomers of 2018, quickly knocking out Beneil Dariush in his UFC debut before scoring a dominant win over Olivier Aubin-Mercier to enter 2019 as a potential lightweight contender. However, he kicked off that year with a career-altering loss to Donald Cerrone, who consistently punished Hernandez’s aggressive approach on his way to a second-round knockout. The setback seemed to permanently destroy Hernandez’s confidence. Hernandez badly overcompensated in his next fight, staying patient to the point of ineffectiveness in an unwatchable win over Francisco Trinaldo, though he eventually found more of a balance, even if there was still a clear trendline through his next half decade of fights. He could still run over less athletic or more offensively anemic opposition, but surviving into the second round was usually enough to take over a fight against Hernandez. He has now won four straight fights after an ill-advised attempt to start a campaign at featherweight, and it’s hard to tell exactly how far this current wave of success can carry him. He paced himself decently enough in decision victories over Austin Hubbard and Kurt Holobaugh, but wins over Chase Hooper and Diego Ferreira were strangely against type, with Hernandez taking great strides to stay out of any potential danger before essentially winning each fight with one massive counter. It’s unclear how that will play against Johnson, another fighter whose UFC career has been marked by his inability to stay out of his own head.

The runner-up on “The Ultimate Fighter 12” back in 2010, “The Menace” was solid but unspectacular until a breakout win over Joe Lauzon in 2013, when Johnson’s boxing skills finally clicked to take advantage of his remarkable speed. That led to a brief run up the rankings that eventually stalled out with losses to Dariush and Nate Diaz. However, a quick and brutal knockout of Dustin Poirier gave Johnson some renewed relevance, even if the issues with his game were clearly apparent by that point. Johnson has always been dangerous, but there were just too many ways to take him out of his game, even at his peak. Diaz and Justin Gaethje successfully baited him into brawls. Even more notable has been Johnson’s consistent tendency to crumble against any opponent who presses any sort of consistent wrestling game. A surprising 2023 knockout loss to Ferreira seemed to finally signal the end for Johnson, but he has surprisingly rebounded with three straight wins. It has been ugly at points, and his foot speed is clearly diminished, but Johnson still has the hand speed and power to put some scares into his opponents, even if he still does seemingly need the right type of fight. This might or might not be one. On the plus side for Johnson, Hernandez seems less likely than ever to come into this fight with a consistent takedown threat. However, Hernandez’s new and more elusive style does mean that Johnson will have to track a much faster opponent down. Perhaps the tension involved carries this match, as there figures to be little happening until one explosive moment of offense ends things. The read is that Hernandez stays at range while Johnson waits on a knockout that never comes. The pick is Hernandez via decision.

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