Welterweights
Vicente Luque (23-11-1; 16-7 UFC) vs. Joel Alvarez (22-3; 7-2 UFC)Veteran welterweight action hero Luque will attempt to defend home soil against Alvarez, who steps in for Santiago Ponzinibbio—and up from lightweight—on three weeks’ notice.
Poor Luque. One of the UFC’s most likable fighters and most reliably entertaining and beloved violence merchants since graduating from “The Ultimate Fighter” Season 21 a decade ago, he had been scheduled to face Ponzinibbio in a very appropriate matchup of welterweights with similar achievements and career tracks. When the Argentinean was forced to withdraw, in stepped Alvarez, one of the lightweight division’s scariest rising contenders. Now, instead of a near pick ‘em, Luque is the second biggest underdog on the card, and to add insult to injury, Alvarez is going to be the bigger fighter despite moving up in weight.
Luque has been appointment viewing for years, to his own competitive detriment. While he is a very capable muay thai striker, using hard hooks and excellent kicks and knees to damage his foes, he has always been vastly underrated as a wrestler and grappler, at least in part because he prefers not to use those tools except as a last resort, or when forced to do so. The ideal Luque fight involves the Brazilian mauling his foe in a close-quarters brawl until the other fighter gets hurt or desperate and shoots for a takedown straight into his excellent front headlock, and it has worked often enough over the years that Luque is still among the UFC’s all-time leaders in D’Arce and anaconda chokes.
However, that approach was always going to live and die with Luque’s durability, and with four losses in his last six outings, three of them by finish, we appear to be in the final act of the career of the UFC’s oldest 33-year-old. That makes Saturday’s matchup with Alvarez especially brutal.
Alvarez is, if not the biggest man in the 155-pound division, at least in the team photo with Ignacio Bahamondes and Jalin Turner. While he can look awkward at times when facing smaller lightweights, it is deceptive: Alvarez is a very good athlete, smooth and fast on his feet, and when paired with solid kickboxing technique, it allows him to deliver numbing power. A bit like Luque, Alvarez prefers to settle things on the feet, but when an opponent is hurt, or looks to bring things to the ground in desperation, he is quick to find guillotines and brabo chokes with his long arms.
This is one of the widest betting lines at UFC Rio for good reason, as Alvarez should dominate. Luque’s best route to victory would involve going to his wrestling early and often, but even that would be no guarantee of success considering Alvarez’s size, skills and his arsenal of intercepting knees and punches. The pick here is that Alvarez notches a first-round knockout, probably of the brutal variety, and the biggest questions coming out of the matchup will be whether Luque retires just weeks ahead of his 34th birthday, and whether Alvarez decides to stay at 170 pounds.
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Oliveira vs. Gamrot
Figueiredo vs. Jackson
Luque vs. Alvarez
Diniz vs. Pinto
Ramos vs. Ofli
Almeida vs. Aswell
The Prelims